California Timber Town Bets on ‘Blue Economy’ to Revive Fortunes

On California’s rugged North Coast, the small city of Fort Bragg is attempting a bold reinvention. Once a hub for logging and fishing, the community of roughly 6,800 has spent more than two decades redefining itself after the 2002 closure of a Georgia-Pacific lumber mill ended its timber-based economy. Now, grappling with population decline and an economy dominated by seasonal tourism, city leaders are turning to their largest natural asset—the Pacific Ocean—and a sprawling, vacant industrial site to chart a new course.

A blueprint prepared by Kosmont Companies outlines Fort Bragg’s strategy, highlighting the city’s economic challenges and opportunities. Since 2020, the population has dropped 4%, the median age stands at 44.3 years, and the local labor market shows a net loss of about 390 jobs. Tourism peaks from June through September, leaving the city vulnerable to seasonal swings.

The plan focuses on three pillars: business support, redevelopment of the former mill, and a so-called “Blue Economy.”

Mill Site: A Launchpad for Growth

At the center of the effort is the 400-acre former mill site, a waterfront property city planners envision as a transformative mixed-use development. About 192.5 acres are slated for light industrial, commercial, and residential uses, including a nature center and facilities for the Noyo Center for Ocean Science.

Fort Bragg’s real estate market underscores the urgency. Retail vacancy is just 0.5%, and the multifamily market has only 455 units with a 0.9% vacancy rate. By adding new housing, boutique hotels, and retail on the Mill Site, city officials hope to draw new residents—from young professionals to retirees—and expand the tourist base beyond its existing 250-mile trade area.

Riding the Blue Wave

The Mill Site redevelopment is intertwined with Fort Bragg’s adoption of the “Blue Economy,” a framework linking economic growth to ocean health. The city aims to move beyond traditional maritime industries into sustainable ventures, including climate-resilient fisheries, marine research, aquaculture, and eco-tourism.

Key projects include expanding the Noyo Center for Ocean Science and pilot initiatives like the Oneka Seawater Desalination Buoy study. The goal: establish Fort Bragg as a national hub for marine sustainability, attracting corporate investment, research institutions, and skilled workers. Achieving this will require capital investment in harbor infrastructure and workforce development, likely in partnership with Mendocino College and other regional institutions.

Financing Ambition

To fund infrastructure and development, city planners are considering advanced financing tools. The report recommends exploring Tax Increment Financing (TIF) districts, including Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs) and Climate Resilience Districts (CRDs). These mechanisms capture future property tax gains from new development and reinvest them in public improvements such as roads, utilities, and broadband, potentially unlocking the Mill Site’s economic potential.

Challenges remain. Environmental remediation of the Mill Site continues, and Fort Bragg’s remote location adds layers of economic isolation. Success will hinge on the city’s ability to execute a complex, multi-pronged strategy that transforms an industrial past into a sustainable coastal future.

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